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EPEX SPOT – German Spot Surges Amid Partial Decoupling

POWER

The German day-ahead base-load on the Epex Spot surged to €492.04/MWh, up from €75.60/MWh in the previous session, as technical reasons at the Epex Spot caused partial IDA decoupling in several areas.

  • The German peak-load spot index surged to €189.45/MWh, from €75.60/MWh in the previous session. Despite the higher prices, prices moved two hours into negative territory.
  • The French day-ahead base load on the Epex Spot decreased to €2.96/MWh, down from €45.74/MWh in the previous session, also influenced by the technical error rather than by fundamentals.
  • French renewables output is forecast to edge down on the day. Wind output in France is forecast to reach a maximum of 3.64GW on Wednesday, up from a high of 3.76GW on Tuesday. Solar PV output is forecast to reach 12.25GW on Wednesday, slightly down from 12.8GW on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French power demand is forecast at a peak of 49.97GW on Tuesday and rise further to a maximum of 51.87GW on Wednesday according to Entso-E.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures are expected to stay above the seasonal normal until 1 June, extending the warmer-than-usual period slightly, after which temperatures are forecast to drop below normal slightly. Maximum temperatures in Paris are forecast to reach 30C on 27 June.
  • French nuclear availability was stable on the day at 70% as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • In Germany, wind and solar PV output is forecast to be slightly lower on the day on Wednesday. Wind output is forecast to reach a maximum of 9.97GW on Wednesday, slightly down from a maximum of 10.77GW on Tuesday. Solar PV output is forecast to decline to a high of 42.1GW on Wednesday, compared with a high of 46GW on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Power demand in Germany is at a maximum of 63.32GW on Tuesday and of 63.41GW on Wednesday.
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