Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- Political RiskPolitical Risk
Intelligence on key political and geopolitical events around the world.
- About Us
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
Richmond Fed Pres Barkin on Monday said "we have an outcome-based policy. When the outcomes look like substantial further progress, that is the time to talk about it [referring to when the Fed can start to consider tapering]. And he specifically identified substantial further progress in terms of the employment-to-population ratio: "Where we were in February of 2020 was 61.1, so I want to see substantial progress toward getting to 61."
- NY Fed's Williams also noted Monday that he found the 'EPOP' ratio "useful".
- Progress at the pace seen in March (+0.2pp to EPOP) would mean the ratio hits 61 in August 2022 from 57.8 last month. At the average monthly pace post-April 2020, it would get back by September 2021. See chart.
- Markets appear to be girding for the latter scenario much more than the former, given expectations for the Fed taper to begin in late 2021/early 2022.
- MNI addressed this in a March 3 policy exclusive: "Fed Targets EPOP Rebound, Sees Little Scarring". Notably, a senior advisor at Barkin's Richmond Fed told MNI: ""A very optimistic scenario [for a return of LFPR to pre-pandemic levels] is by the end of this year."
Source: BLS, MNI Calculations