Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Richmond Fed Pres Barkin on Monday said "we have an outcome-based policy. When the outcomes look like substantial further progress, that is the time to talk about it [referring to when the Fed can start to consider tapering]. And he specifically identified substantial further progress in terms of the employment-to-population ratio: "Where we were in February of 2020 was 61.1, so I want to see substantial progress toward getting to 61."
- NY Fed's Williams also noted Monday that he found the 'EPOP' ratio "useful".
- Progress at the pace seen in March (+0.2pp to EPOP) would mean the ratio hits 61 in August 2022 from 57.8 last month. At the average monthly pace post-April 2020, it would get back by September 2021. See chart.
- Markets appear to be girding for the latter scenario much more than the former, given expectations for the Fed taper to begin in late 2021/early 2022.
- MNI addressed this in a March 3 policy exclusive: "Fed Targets EPOP Rebound, Sees Little Scarring". Notably, a senior advisor at Barkin's Richmond Fed told MNI: ""A very optimistic scenario [for a return of LFPR to pre-pandemic levels] is by the end of this year."
Source: BLS, MNI Calculations
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok