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EQUITIES: Betting Markets Swing Back In Trumps Favour, Stocks Look To Agree

EQUITIES
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  • Trump looks to have swung back ahead of Harris in the betting markets over the past few days. Polymarket has Trump at 53.5% vs 46% for Harris. PredicIt has the pair even, although this implies a 7pt swing in Trump's favor over the past two weeks.
  • Taking a look at BoFA's Democratic & Republican victory beneficiaries basket, stocks look to agree with the move in betting markets. The basket of Republican Party stocks has pushed ahead of Democratic party stocks for the first time since the Debate on Sept 10th.
  • The top Republican beneficiaries are seen as healthcare names UnitedHealth Group & Humana while Investment Banks (MS, HLI, JEF, EVR, LAZ, GS) & Crypto/Trading/Payments (COIN, MARA, HOOD, PYPL & SQ) also look to benefit from a victory.
  • The top seven beneficiaries of a Democrat victory are all healthcare names (THC, USH, CHA, CNC, MOH, ELV, OSCR).

Chart. Republican vs Democratic Stock Basket Performance

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  • Trump looks to have swung back ahead of Harris in the betting markets over the past few days. Polymarket has Trump at 53.5% vs 46% for Harris. PredicIt has the pair even, although this implies a 7pt swing in Trump's favor over the past two weeks.
  • Taking a look at BoFA's Democratic & Republican victory beneficiaries basket, stocks look to agree with the move in betting markets. The basket of Republican Party stocks has pushed ahead of Democratic party stocks for the first time since the Debate on Sept 10th.
  • The top Republican beneficiaries are seen as healthcare names UnitedHealth Group & Humana while Investment Banks (MS, HLI, JEF, EVR, LAZ, GS) & Crypto/Trading/Payments (COIN, MARA, HOOD, PYPL & SQ) also look to benefit from a victory.
  • The top seven beneficiaries of a Democrat victory are all healthcare names (THC, USH, CHA, CNC, MOH, ELV, OSCR).

Chart. Republican vs Democratic Stock Basket Performance