-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessUSD/TWD Offered Above 30.00
1 month USD/TWD remained very much within recent ranges post the Asia close. We saw a brief blip above 30.00 but we ended the NY session at 29.94. Note spot closed at 29.999 onshore yesterday. While Pelosi has now left Taiwan the focus is likely to be on China military exercises held over the next few days around the island and any further economic sanctions announced.
- The military exercises risk incursions into Taiwan's territorial waters and airspace. As we noted yesterday this creates the risk of accidental military clashes. The other focus point will be how the exercises disrupt sea and air trade routes, although if the exercises conclude on August 7 the impact is expected to be fairly minimal.
- Sanctions announced by China to date around curbing Taiwan agricultural and sand exports to China aren't expected to have a large economic impact. Most of Taiwan's trade surplus with China is in the manufactured goods space, so any trade sanctions in this area would represent an escalation.
- Despite the modest gain in Taiwan stocks yesterday (+0.20%), offshore investors sold a further $242.5mn in local shares, bringing week to date net outflows to just over $1.2bn. There were strong gains in tech shares overnight, which may help local sentiment today, although clearly the focus will remain on the risks outlined above.
- Comments yesterday from the CBC Governor that the authorities were not concerned by outflows and that the central bank has ample FX reserves were also noteworthy.
- The 1 month implied vol for USD/TWD is off recent highs, down to 6.21%, from +7%. It's a similar pattern in the risk reversal space.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.