March 14, 2023 03:15 GMT
Equity Weakness & Wider Trade Deficit Weigh
Spot USD/PHP is back above 55.00 (last near 55.08), around +0.25% higher versus closing levels yesterday. This puts us above the 20-day EMA, while the 50 and 200-days sit slightly higher but sub-55.20. Recent lows in the pair come in around the 54.70/80 region. Hence the pair is roughly at the mid point of recent ranges.
- Still, earlier data was weaker than expected in terms of the trade balance for Jan, printing at -$5.74bn, versus -$4.381bn forecast. This puts the trade deficit just above record lows from mid 2022. Export growth was much weaker than expected at -13.5% y/y (+1.1% forecast), as the global slowdown catches up with the country's exporters. Imports were firmer +3.9% y/y (-1.8% forecast).
- This, along with a weaker equity tone is weighing PHP. Local stocks are off by around 0.9%. This puts the index back under 6500, which is also sub the simple 200-day MA. Yesterday saw -$384.7mn in net equity outflows, the largest single day of outflows since Sep 2015.