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MNI US MARKETS ANALYSIS - Tsys Firmer Ahead of Early Close
Equity Weakness & Wider Trade Deficit Weigh
Spot USD/PHP is back above 55.00 (last near 55.08), around +0.25% higher versus closing levels yesterday. This puts us above the 20-day EMA, while the 50 and 200-days sit slightly higher but sub-55.20. Recent lows in the pair come in around the 54.70/80 region. Hence the pair is roughly at the mid point of recent ranges.
- Still, earlier data was weaker than expected in terms of the trade balance for Jan, printing at -$5.74bn, versus -$4.381bn forecast. This puts the trade deficit just above record lows from mid 2022. Export growth was much weaker than expected at -13.5% y/y (+1.1% forecast), as the global slowdown catches up with the country's exporters. Imports were firmer +3.9% y/y (-1.8% forecast).
- This, along with a weaker equity tone is weighing PHP. Local stocks are off by around 0.9%. This puts the index back under 6500, which is also sub the simple 200-day MA. Yesterday saw -$384.7mn in net equity outflows, the largest single day of outflows since Sep 2015.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.