Erdogan Signals New Operation in Syria, AKP Support Wanes

LOCAL NEWS

• Erdogan signals new operation against the YPG in Syria, warning of possible "steps" in Syria after the latest attack that killed two Turkish police.
  • Erdogan: "we are determined to eliminate the threats originating here either with the active forces there or by our own means"
• Metropoll survey shows 53.7% of voters see the AKP falling from power in 2023. Only 37.8% of total voters believed the AKP would remain in power, while 65.8% of AKP voters believed it would retain power. 80% of CHP & HDP voters believe the AKP will lose power in 2023
• Erdogan is looking to use the G20 summit (End October) to lobby Biden to allow Ankara to purchase $6bn in US F-16 warplanes in an effort to overcome US resistance to major arms deals.
  • This, however, may be a difficult task given Congress' opposition to Turkey's agreements with Russian to purchase S-400s
• Natural Resources Minister says Turkey is not at risk of any gas shortages this winter thanks to recent investments in infrastructure. Notes pipelines from the Black Sea, Azerbaijan and Iran alongside two floating LNG terminals should be sufficient

Data:

• 0800BST: Aug Industrial production m/m exp at 3.7% vs -4.2% prior
• 0800BST: Aug Industrial production y/y exp at 10.5% vs 8.7% prior