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Erdogan’s Inflation Views Eyed in Today’s Medium-Term Program

TURKEY
  • President Erdogan is set to unveil the government’s Medium-Term Program at 2pm local time today (1200BST). Of most market importance, the President will be detailing the government’s growth, inflation and budget deficit targets for the coming period covering 2024-2026.
  • Any focus from the President on inflation and its root causes will draw attention, with Erdogan stating after cabinet yesterday that some of Turkey’s price gains are “far beyond” what can be justified by the weaker TRY, with some pricing behaviour “psychological”.
  • Ekonomi cite economists ahead of the MTP as seeing interest rate hikes as insufficient to lure investors back to holding TRY. Instead, the authorities must demonstrate a willingness to combat inflation and stabilize FX rates.
  • The President of the Eurochambres also cites TRY volatility as a source of uncertainty, stating that FX rates are an obstacle to building trade ties, highlighting the risks to Turkey from a slowing Eurozone.
  • Following ministerial meetings between Ankara and Tokyo, Hurriyet cite the trade minister as seeing trade rising with Japan to $6bln by the end of 2023.
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