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Escalating Dispute Over Rule of Law Could Weigh on Risky Assets and PLN

POLAND
  • Angela Merkel is worried that some European Union leaders and lawmakers are thrusting the EU into a fight with Poland that leaves no room for compromise and could end in disaster (BBG).
  • Yesterday, PM Mateusz Morawiecki mentioned at a plenary session of the European Parliament that he wants Poland's membership to be a 'win-win' for all and reiterated that Poland's place is in the EU.
  • The series of legal dispute with the EU over Primacy Law have led to the Commission taking the decision to delay the funds to Poland, which could weigh on Polish risky assets and the PLN in the medium term.
  • As Poland is the largest net recipient of EU structural funding (36bn EUR), it could start to weigh on growth expectations as the funds were going to contribute to a significant part of economic growth according to analysts.
  • Inflationary pressures continue to remain elevated in the CEE region, increasing the odds for another hike by the NBP next month.
  • Yesterday, economic data average gross wages rose slightly less than expected in September by 8.7% YoY (vs. 9% exp.), down from 9.5% the previous month.
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