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Eskom Ramps Up Load-Shedding, SARB Rate Decision Eyed This Week

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Eskom ramped up load-shedding to Stage 4 last night, moving to Stage 3 this morning, before another escalation to Stage 5 scheduled for this afternoon. The utility is planning to move between Stages 3 and 5 thereafter until further notice as a generation unit at Duvha Power Station broke down. This comes amid South Africa's efforts to boost generation capacity. Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe told the Sunday Times that the government is prepared for legal fights with environmental groups over the plan to use ship-mounted power plants operated by Turkish company Karpowership.
  • Participants added hawkish SARB bets ahead of this week's monetary policy meeting, with the longer end of the FRA curve shifting higher, indicating expectations of rates staying higher for longer. Incoming inflation data (CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday) will provide key inputs to the debate on the interest-rate outlook. Meanwhile, the rand refreshed all-time lows last week as the SARB are facing the risk of tightening monetary conditions into a weakening economy.
  • S&P deferred its review of South Africa's credit rating scheduled for last Friday. The agency unexpectedly announced an off-cycle update back in March, changing the nation's rating outlook to stable from positive.
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