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Estimated US Gas Storage Draw of 318bcf: BNEF

NATGAS

The US EIA gas storage data due for release at 10:30ET (15:30GMT) is expected to show a large withdrawal of -318bcf for the week ending Jan 19 according to BNEF after severe cold weather in the week.

  • The Bloomberg survey average suggests a draw of -319bcf on the week compared to the seasonal normal draw of -149bcf.
  • The BNEF samples-based model predicts a withdrawal of -317bcf while the weather-based supply and demand model predicts a withdrawal of -319bcf.
  • Total storage was last week reported at 3,182bcf after an -154bcf draw on the week. US storage was 320bcf higher than the seasonal average of 2,862bcf and 93bcf higher than the previous 5-year high.
  • Consumption is forecast up by 18.1bcf/d to 131.8bcf/d driven by residential / commercial and power gen demand. Supply is expected to have fallen by 3.5bcf/d to 87.5bcf/d.
  • The early view for the week ending Jan 26 is a withdrawal of -215bcf.
    • US Natgas FEB 24 up 2.2% at 2.7$/mmbtu
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