Estonia's Right-Wing Nationalists Surge As 'Grand Coalition' Comes To Power

The right-wing nationalist Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) has recorded a surge in opinion polling support since the formation of a new 'grand coalition' gov't involving Estonia's two largest parties in January.

• Kantar Emor poll: Reform: 30% (+3), EKRE-: 20% (+6), Centre: 17% (-2), Estonia 200: 15% (-2), Social Democrats: 9%, Fatherland: 5% (-3), Green: 2% (-2). +/-vs. 14 - 19 January 2021. Fieldwork: 11 - 15 February 2021. Sample size: 1,124
• The next general election is not due to be held until 2023, and the centre-right liberal Reform Party and populist Russian minority interest Centre Party 'grand coalition' led by PM Kaja Kallas holds a comfortable majority in parliament. However, these two are historical adversaries as Estonia's two dominant parties and it remains to be seen whether they can work together in coalition in the long-term.
• The EKRE, which is both eurosceptic and anti-Russian, was part of the previous gov't led by the Centre Party. The collapse of that gov't seems to have given the party a boost in polls and visibility, given that it can return to using more aggressive nationalist rhetoric in opposition than was possible when it formed part of the gov't.