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June Exports Miss, Electronic Exports Fall, Lagging Other Parts Of Asia

SINGAPORE
DataEM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletEmerging Market News

Singapore June exports were weaker than forecast. The m/m print for non-oil domestic exports was -0.4%, versus +2.7% forecast and -0.7% prior. The y/y was -8.7%, against a -1.3% forecast and -0.7% for May. Electronic exports were -9.8%y/y, versus +19.6% for May.

  • The dip in non-electronic exports was not due to the volatile pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals sub sectors, which were up in y/y terms.
  • On the tech side, there was sharp swings in terms of of sub component, which drove the weakness in the headline result. By country exports to the US shifted back to -21.3%y/y, versus 12.1% prior. To China, -11.2% was the y/y outcome, versus -22.2% in May.
  • This result puts Singapore exports weaker than the trend for other export orientated economies in the region. The chart below plots y/y export growth for China, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore (which is the grey line).
  • As we noted yesterday in this update on South Korea yesterday around chip exports, one watch point in the lead up to the US election will be the potential front loading of exports (tech or otherwise) out of the region ahead of potential US trade policy shifts.

Fig 1: Asia Export Trends, Singapore Export Growth Lagged In June

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Singapore June exports were weaker than forecast. The m/m print for non-oil domestic exports was -0.4%, versus +2.7% forecast and -0.7% prior. The y/y was -8.7%, against a -1.3% forecast and -0.7% for May. Electronic exports were -9.8%y/y, versus +19.6% for May.

  • The dip in non-electronic exports was not due to the volatile pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals sub sectors, which were up in y/y terms.
  • On the tech side, there was sharp swings in terms of of sub component, which drove the weakness in the headline result. By country exports to the US shifted back to -21.3%y/y, versus 12.1% prior. To China, -11.2% was the y/y outcome, versus -22.2% in May.
  • This result puts Singapore exports weaker than the trend for other export orientated economies in the region. The chart below plots y/y export growth for China, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore (which is the grey line).
  • As we noted yesterday in this update on South Korea yesterday around chip exports, one watch point in the lead up to the US election will be the potential front loading of exports (tech or otherwise) out of the region ahead of potential US trade policy shifts.

Fig 1: Asia Export Trends, Singapore Export Growth Lagged In June

Keep reading...Show less