EU Close

iTraxx is +1.5/+2.5 wider heading into the close, Main continuing to trade range-bound against CDX. Euro & dollar IG seem to be trading places today - €IG is still skewed firmly wider, while $IG has moved unch-to-tighter into US midday. Booking.com € curve holding 7-11 wider on €2.75b of supply & similar story for UniCredit on €1.25b 10y (+3-6bps). Now only ~€5b shy of weekly supply expectations with macro calendar picking up starting with the US tomorrow. A large rally in rates on weak data may add to the supply headwind heading into March - bunds still holding supportive for now - belly +2bps today.

Eurofins Scientific {ERF FP Equity -6.7%} was the worst performing in €IG equities with some pass through to cash credit - Snr (non-perp's) Baa3/BBB- (S) lines are +1-4 wider. Its medium-term earnings & leverage targets are unch, and leverage was little changed over the FY. Earnings guidance for FY24 is above guidance - equity price action not reflecting that & may be tied to a FCF miss in FY23 - dividend was halved but in line with historical pay-out ratios (against net profit). At a headline take we don't see any credit concerns on earnings.

Second biggest fall was from {EDEN FP Equity -5%} - equities struggling to look past regulation concerns to positive earnings and unch targets - we saw value in the A- (stable) lines & they have outperformed equities & broader spreads today (unch to 1bp tighter), but still continue price the curve on a discount on the ongoing Italian probe.