EU Gas Faces Twin Threat this Winter: Montel

Europe’s gas supply faces the twin threat of ongoing infrastructure bottlenecks and the conflict in Ukraine, Montel said.

• Despite Europe’s gas storage reaching an unprecedented 100 bcm, concerns remained about the continent’s ability to distribute gas effectively and maintain stable supplies.
• Pipeline bottlenecks, especially in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, may prevent the stored gas from reaching where it’s needed.
• This may require additional LNG cargoes during winter, although sufficient arrivals may not come until early 2025.
• Flows to Slovakia and Austria are particularly vulnerable, Montel said.
• The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and recent incursion into Kursk has caused TTF to spike, despite no current impact on supply.
• Some experts believe European gas prices could surge by 10%-20% if Russia or Ukraine cut off the gas flows through Sudzha.
• However, the risk of any deliberate shutting off these flows from either side is low.