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EU Gas Storage Could Fall to 40% on Potentially Colder Winter: RBC

NATURAL GAS

Withdrawals rates have eased back from highs of last week and pressure on storage could be further reduced with demand expected to be muted by warmer than normal weather from this weekend. Storage levels remain high and the near term prices holding a bearish tone despite the recent cold weather in Europe.

  • Summer 2024 pricing is expected above 2023 levels given current weather forecasts and storage modelling according to RBC Europe Ltd. RBC said gas storage could fall to about 40% full by the end of March with a potentially colder winter than last year in Europe.
  • Total European gas storage is currently down to 93.9% full on Dec 3 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 83.6%.
  • Net withdrawals in the week to Dec 3 averaged nearly 5,760GWh/d compared to the 2018-2022 average for the period of 4,220GWh/d.
    • TTF JAN 24 down -0.5% at 39.89€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -0.8% at 40.15€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.1% at 39.55€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1% at 43.77€/MWh


Source: GIE / Bloomberg

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