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EU Industrial Gas Demand To Rise This Winter, Lag Pre-Covid Levels: GS

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas demand from European industries is forecast to rise this winter year on year but consumption is expected to remain below pre-crisis levels according to a Goldman Sachs note.

  • Northwest European industrial demand for gas stood 13% below last year’s level in 1H 2023, because of weak end-user demand and elevated finished-good inventories, Goldman said.
  • However, the bank forecasts NW European industrial gas demand to move above last year’s levels from this winter into 2024, but consumption is expected to remain 16% below pre-crisis levels, compared with 27% year to date.
  • For 2024 the bank revised winter and summer gas demand lower by 39mcm/d and 15mcm/d, respectively, driven by lower industrial and power demand.
  • Goldman also adjusted its TTF price forecast lower for this year and next year. The Aug-Oct23 TTF forecast has been revised down to €33/MWh, from €90/MWh previously. The bank also lowered the Win23-24/Sum24 TTF price forecasts to €45/48 MWh from €93/94/MWh previously.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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