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EU Leaders Concerned Over 'Downward Spiral' With Polish Relations

POLAND
  • We have seen that the on-going dispute between Poland and EU over Primacy Law has been one of the major risks for Polish assets and PLN in the medium term.
  • Even though the 'inflation narrative' has stolen the show in the EM world, with participants mainly focusing on the central banks' policy outlook, a persistent divergence in relations between Poland and the 27-nation bloc could eventually weigh on the zloty.
  • In addition, it also endangers the government's access to the 36bn EUR in pandemic aid. Growth expectations could be reviewed significantly to the downside in case EU delays the stimulus package, pausing a threat to Polish risky assets.
  • During the EU summit, Merkel and Macro mentioned their deep concerns about a 'downward spiral' in Polish-EU relations following the recent decision by Poland' constitutional tribunal on Primacy Law.
  • EC President von der Leyen said that she (and the EU) hopes for 'concrete actions' from Polish government.
  • PLN is unchanged following the EU talks; USDPLN has been oscillating around 3.9530 in today's afternoon trading session.
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