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EU Proposes Exemption To Russia Oil Sanctions Ban Until December 2024

HUNGARY
  • The NBH decided to leave its 1W depo rate unchanged yesterday at 6.45% (as expected) after hiking it by 30bps last week (following the 100bps hike in the ‘core’ policy rate).
  • NBH policymakers have reiterated on several occasions their intention to hike the 1W depo rate on a monthly basis (rather than every week) in the coming meetings.
  • The monthly adjustments on the 1W depo rate will strongly depend on the performance of the HUF, which remains cheap against major crosses but is not trading at a ‘critical’ level for now.
  • EURHUF retraced sharply higher yesterday after finding support at the 50DMA this week, and is currently trading back above the 380 level.
    • The pair continues to trade within its 1M range between 370 and 382.60.
  • This morning, economic data showed that industrial production rose by 4.2% YoY in March (vs. 3.1% exp.), down from revised 4.8% the previous month.
  • Hungary (and Slovakia) would receive an exemption on the ban on Russian oil imports until the end of 2024.
  • Hungary has been opposing EU sanctions on Russia oil as it has no alternative to working with Russian petroleum suppliers.
  • According to Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Russian oil accounts for about 65% of the oil Hungary requires for now.
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