EMISSIONS
The EUA Dec25 premium over the secondary sport market price is currently at the lowest since the Dec24 expiry, with sharp losses in EU gas prices weighing on December allowances.
- The spread has narrowed to €1.82/ton CO2e at the time of writing, compared with a 2025 high of -2.19€/ton CO2e.
- The latest sharp pullback in EU gas prices has weighed on futures contracts, while ongoing colder weather and low renewables output is keeping a lid on losses for the spot.
- TTF front month is extending the decline this week to fall around €10/MWh from a peak of €59.39/MWh on Feb. 11 under growing calls from member states to relax EU storage targets. Potential Ukraine peace talks, strong LNG imports driven by record US exports are adding bearish pressure and with the possibility of a correction to high net long market positioning.
- Mean temperatures in NW Europe are seen below the seasonal average until 18 February, before rising above normal until 27 February, when temperatures are forecast to ease back, the latest Bloomberg ECMWF forecast showed.
- Wind output in CWE is forecast to remain relatively low at 6.5GW to 29.65GW during base load during 15-23 February according to SpotRenewables.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.6% at 77.6 EUR/t CO2e
- EUA Daily Futures down 0.5% at 75.76 EUR/t CO2e
- TTF Gas MAR 25 down 5.2% at 48.7 EUR/MWh
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