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EMISSIONS: EUA Rally Faces Downside Risks Next Month: BNEF

EMISSIONS
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The latest bullish momentum in EU carbon prices could see some downside risks next month, with an expected drop in power sector emissions, while lower gas prices could further limit the upside in EUAs according to BNEF. 

  • European power sector emissions in selected markets are tracking a 6% decline on the year in January, after emissions rose by less than 1% in January on the month. Power sector emissions are expected to decline by 26% on the month in February.
  • European industrial emissions declined by 16.2% on the month in January, and slightly above 2024 levels. 
  • Aviation emissions this month decreased by 5.5% on the month but were 4.5% above last year’s levels. Emissions are expected to increase gradually but will fall back in-line with 2024 levels by April.
  • Emissions from the shipping sector were 5% lower on the month in January and 7.7% below 2024 levels.
  • The correlation between EUAs and TTF gas prices declined to 84% so far in January, compared with 87% in December. 
     
Screenshot 2025-01-30 084159
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The latest bullish momentum in EU carbon prices could see some downside risks next month, with an expected drop in power sector emissions, while lower gas prices could further limit the upside in EUAs according to BNEF. 

  • European power sector emissions in selected markets are tracking a 6% decline on the year in January, after emissions rose by less than 1% in January on the month. Power sector emissions are expected to decline by 26% on the month in February.
  • European industrial emissions declined by 16.2% on the month in January, and slightly above 2024 levels. 
  • Aviation emissions this month decreased by 5.5% on the month but were 4.5% above last year’s levels. Emissions are expected to increase gradually but will fall back in-line with 2024 levels by April.
  • Emissions from the shipping sector were 5% lower on the month in January and 7.7% below 2024 levels.
  • The correlation between EUAs and TTF gas prices declined to 84% so far in January, compared with 87% in December. 
     
Screenshot 2025-01-30 084159