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EUR Buoyed as Knot Warns Markets Underestimating ECB Rate Path

FOREX
  • After trading sideways for the bulk of the Asia-Pac session, EUR/USD picked up alongside comments from ECB's Knot, who stated he sees "multiple" 50bps rate hikes from the bank, adding that markets may be underestimating the bank's policy path. EUR/USD recovered well back above the 1.08 handle, although has stopped short of any test on the Wednesday high at 1.0887.
  • JPY is extending the recovery off the BoJ-inspired low this week, and is among the strongest currencies in G10. This confirms price action on Wednesday as corrective, keeping yesterday's 127.57 a focus for USD/JPY bears.
  • AUD, NZD are among the poorest performers in G10. Markets moves follow a weaker than expected jobs report out of Australia as well as the unexpected resignation of the NZ PM Jacinda Ardern. AUD/USD eyes support at the 0.6821 200-dma for direction.
  • Norway's Norges Bank kept policy unchanged, alongside consensus expectations, but against a minority who saw further tightening today. In name-checking March as the next most likely hike., the bank have confirmed a return to gradualism for Norwegian monetary policy, and softer language on rates may signal 3.00% is the peak of the cycle for now.
  • Focus turns to the weekly US jobless claims releases as well as December housing starts and building permits. Fed and ECB speakers will also be carefully watched, with Fed's Collins, Brainard & Williams due as well as ECB's Knot.
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