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EUR/CZK Stays Below 50-DMA, CNB Speak Eyed

CZK
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EUR/CZK continues to track below the 50-DMA (25.317), last dealing at 25.272, just shy of neutral levels. Should the pair manage to break through that moving average, bulls could set their sights on a cyclical high printed at 25.519 on Feb 15. On the flip side, bears are targeting Mar 18 low of 25.087 as well as the psychologically significant level of 25.000.

  • The focus is on comments trickling through from a discussion forum in Pardubice, with several CNB members appearing as speakers. Governor Michl in his keynote speech revisited some familiar tropes, guiding that the CNB may cut rates next week, while also flagging the need for caution about monetary easing and stressing that a pause to the rate-cutting cycle is an option if inflation outcomes deviate from forecasts. Separately, Deputy Governor Eva Zamrazilova said that Czechia's GDP outlook will likely be revised higher in the new forecast (due alongside the rate decision next week), adding that the Bank Board keeps watching services inflation. Jan Prochazka will speak on a panel later today, after last week suggesting that he would back another 50bp rate cut on May 2.
  • FYI, the media quarantine ahead of the CNB's next rate decision will start at 14:00BST/15:00CEST on Thursday. The report accompanying the decision may include a fresh estimate of the neutral level of interest rates, which may be higher than estimated before.
  • CZGB yield curve runs slightly flatter; the PX Index sits marginally higher.
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EUR/CZK continues to track below the 50-DMA (25.317), last dealing at 25.272, just shy of neutral levels. Should the pair manage to break through that moving average, bulls could set their sights on a cyclical high printed at 25.519 on Feb 15. On the flip side, bears are targeting Mar 18 low of 25.087 as well as the psychologically significant level of 25.000.

  • The focus is on comments trickling through from a discussion forum in Pardubice, with several CNB members appearing as speakers. Governor Michl in his keynote speech revisited some familiar tropes, guiding that the CNB may cut rates next week, while also flagging the need for caution about monetary easing and stressing that a pause to the rate-cutting cycle is an option if inflation outcomes deviate from forecasts. Separately, Deputy Governor Eva Zamrazilova said that Czechia's GDP outlook will likely be revised higher in the new forecast (due alongside the rate decision next week), adding that the Bank Board keeps watching services inflation. Jan Prochazka will speak on a panel later today, after last week suggesting that he would back another 50bp rate cut on May 2.
  • FYI, the media quarantine ahead of the CNB's next rate decision will start at 14:00BST/15:00CEST on Thursday. The report accompanying the decision may include a fresh estimate of the neutral level of interest rates, which may be higher than estimated before.
  • CZGB yield curve runs slightly flatter; the PX Index sits marginally higher.