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EUR: EUR/CAD Cracks Uptrendline Drawn Off June Low

EUR
USGlobalCEEMEABulletMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America

Weakness in the EUR extending into the NY crossover, with EUR/USD touching new pullback lows of 1.1070 to open a near 150 pip gap with the cycle high at 1.1214 posted last week. Moves come as FX re-orients with OIS pricing for the ECB's October meeting - which creeps to 23bps (from just 7bps this time last week).

  • EUR/CAD provides one of the clearest signs of a bearish breakout today, with the cross showing through uptrendline support drawn off the late June lows at 1.4592.
  • Importantly, EUR/CAD downside today comes despite the softer oil market backdrop (Brent futures off near 1.5% on the day) - meaning a bounce for the energy complex could add extra weight here. A confirmed break below the trendline (1.5009 today) and the 1.4985 support (38.2% retracement for the rally off the late June low) opens horizontal support layered between 1.4888-1.4910.
  • Potentially limiting any further weakness, however, is the all-in Keltner Band strategy - among the more successful technical trading strategies for the cross this year - within which a close at current (or lower) levels would trigger a 'cover and go long' signal, ending the winning short signal initiated on Sept 17th.
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Weakness in the EUR extending into the NY crossover, with EUR/USD touching new pullback lows of 1.1070 to open a near 150 pip gap with the cycle high at 1.1214 posted last week. Moves come as FX re-orients with OIS pricing for the ECB's October meeting - which creeps to 23bps (from just 7bps this time last week).

  • EUR/CAD provides one of the clearest signs of a bearish breakout today, with the cross showing through uptrendline support drawn off the late June lows at 1.4592.
  • Importantly, EUR/CAD downside today comes despite the softer oil market backdrop (Brent futures off near 1.5% on the day) - meaning a bounce for the energy complex could add extra weight here. A confirmed break below the trendline (1.5009 today) and the 1.4985 support (38.2% retracement for the rally off the late June low) opens horizontal support layered between 1.4888-1.4910.
  • Potentially limiting any further weakness, however, is the all-in Keltner Band strategy - among the more successful technical trading strategies for the cross this year - within which a close at current (or lower) levels would trigger a 'cover and go long' signal, ending the winning short signal initiated on Sept 17th.