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EUR Falters as PMIs Sink Faster Than Forecast

FOREX
  • The single currency underperforms all others in G10 ahead of Monday's NY crossover following a softer-than-expected set of flash PMI figures. Manufacturing was a particular weakpoint, with Germany's figures the standout. Germany's July flash manufacturing PMI fell to 38.8 vs. Exp. 41.0 (Prev. 40.6) - undermining the argument that the ECB could follow with further policy tightening after an assumed 25bps hike in July.
  • EUR/USD slipped to 1.1066, the lowest level since Jul12, narrowing the gap with key support at 1.1055, the 50% retracement for the early July upleg.
  • UK manufacturing and services PMIs following in kind, with GBP plumbing new daily lows on the release. GBP/USD showed just below the Friday low to touch 1.2815. A lower close Monday would mark the seventh consecutive session of declines, with 1.2801 the next support: the 61.8% retracement for the early July upleg.
  • Focus Monday turns to US flash PMIs for July, ahead of the Fed, ECB decisions later in the week.
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