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EUR Furtively Firmest, But Ranges Contained For Now

FOREX
  • The single currency is furtively the strongest performer in G10 - showing above the Friday high with little difficulty, allowing EUR/GBP to edge further off the 50-dma resistance tested, but not broken, last week at 0.8575.
  • JPY trades poorly, softer against most others after last week's uptick in volatility. Low levels of implied vols persist, with G10 and EM currency vols holding close to cycle lows - and allowing carry trade dynamics to persist and weaken the JPY.
  • GBP fares well, but ranges are generally contained, as local press continues to speculate and run ahead of this week's pre-election Spring Budget. Space for tax giveaways is seen as slim - which should keep the budget less eventful and more contained, despite the generally poor polling of the ruling Conservative Party.
  • GBP/USD remains gravitated to the 1.2675 50-dma, with 1.2709 marking the next resistance.
  • The Monday data schedule is typically light, with few macro cues ahead of the Fed chair Powell's semi-annual testimony on Wednesday. Fed's Harker is set to speak, however his topic of focus is higher education, meaning policy-relevant comments could be limited.
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