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EUR Hits New Pullback Lows on Bank Lending, IFO Data

FOREX
  • The EUR is sinking against all others, with the ECB bank lending survey as well as the soft German IFO release working against the single currency. The ECB bank lending survey showed the fastest contraction on record for corporate loan demand, and also described the tightening impact on the Eurozone so far as 'substantial' - thereby working against expectations of subsequent tightening beyond this week's assumed 25bps hike.
  • Compounding the pressure on the EUR was the poorer-than-expected IFO release, with both current assessment and headline business climate releases dropping short of expectations.
  • EUR/USD slipped to new pullback lows of 1.1052, extending the correction and moderating the previously overbought condition in the pair. The pair is now lower for the sixth consecutive session.
  • The EUR is the poorest performer in G10, while the AUD is the strongest. Underlying expectations of fresh measures to support domestic demand in China (and thereby commodities) is helping support currencies tied to industrial metals as well as oil.
  • Focus Tuesday turns to the US Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Index as well as the July consumer confidence release. The latter is expected to improve from 109.7 previously to 112.0 - the highest since early 2022. There are no central bank speakers on the docket, with both the ECB and the Federal Reserve remaining inside their pre-decision media blackout periods.
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