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EUR/JPY Steadies, Providing Some Relief

FOREX
  • Thursday's volatile and decisive trading has given way to relief rallies across a number of crosses early Friday - primarily EUR/JPY - which broke through considerable support yesterday to print the lowest levels since mid-March in a wide-ranging session. The cross has steadied, but holds well toward the lower-end of the week's range, with 132.66 undercutting as key support while the 50-dma at 134.59 provides first resistance.
  • With the cross on more even footing, relief rallies are noted elsewhere, with EUR/USD off the Thursday low and AUD/USD oscillating either side of the 0.69 handle.
  • Resultingly, the JPY is the worst performer in G10, while SEK, AUD and NOK trade more favourably. Oil prices have stabilised between $106-108/bbl, helping commodity-tied currencies find some footing while a pause in the equity sell-off is soothing recent concerns.
  • Nonetheless, markets remain wary, with heightened implied volatility across G10 signalling that traders are well aware of the risk of another turn lower for risk sentiment, as a number of central bank speakers are still due: Fed's Kashkari and Mester are due to speak, while ECB's Nagel and Schnabel add to recent ECB commentary.
  • Data focus turns to import/export price indices data from the US as well as the prelim read for May UMich confidence. Markets expected sentiment to moderate from April's 65.2 to 64.0. Attention again will be paid to inflation expectations, particularly in light of the hotter-than-expected CPI earlier in the week.
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