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EUR Market Wrap

CREDIT UPDATE


  • EGBs are trading muted with 2y bunds +1bp and 10y bunds flat on the day with our DM team flagging swelling sovereign syndication & EUR IG supply pipelines, coupled with a pullback from best levels in USTs, as helping to keep yields range-bound. USD swap spreads have moved notably wider (belly spreads nearly +3bp) after Dallas Fed President Logan noted over the weekend that "normalizing the balance sheet more slowly can actually help get to a more efficient balance sheet in the long run by smoothing redistribution and reducing the likelihood that we’d have to stop prematurely.”
  • Main/XO have ticked tighter over the PM session to sit at -0.6bp/-3.4bp, trading mixed against US equivalents (CDX IG/HY -0.9bp/-2.9bp). FICM is showing €IG/€HY at +0.1bp/+0.5bp with swap spreads implying moves of over ~1.25bp vs. govies. Another day of strong supply is likely weighing on cash bonds and we note many of today's issuer curves among the worst index performers (supply update to follow).
  • SXXP is sitting +0.2% having opened flat and moved lower into 09:30 (though the only data out at 09:30 today was the EZ Jan Sentix Investor Survey which printed in line with expectations) before moving higher over the PM session. Growth stocks are outperforming cyclicals (+0.8% vs. flat) while Energy stocks are -2.7% after reports that certain shipping firms were in talks with Houthi rebels regarding passage through the Red Sea.
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