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EUR Market Wrap

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  • 2y/10y bunds closed flat/+2bp as bunds followed USTs lower in a notable reversal of the morning move after the ISM services index printed a little stronger than consensus expectations. ECB-dated OIS price 75bps of further cuts through the remainder of 2024, even after the dovish Stournaras expressed his expectations for just two more 2024 cuts in an interview last week.
  • Main/XO ended +2.4bp/+10bp at 65.3bp/341bp while €IG/€HY was +10.2bp/+24bp in the worst day for the IG index of the year. Cons Staples outperformed at +8.6bp while Comms, Cyclicals, Tech and Fins all widened by over 10bp with Comms, Tech and Cyclicals now wider YYD. +10yr IG spreads are also now 5bp wider YTD vs. -11bp for the short-end.
  • SXXP ended -2.2% with Energy, Utilities and Real Estate all over 3% lower while SPX was -3%. Notable €IG movers included Kellanova +16%, OCI NV +13%, Mizuho -20%, Honda -18%, Mitsubishi -17%, Japan Tobacco -17%, Sumitomo -16%.
  • SX5E futures are +1.2% while SPX was +1.4%. Overnight focus was on broader risk trends, which stabilized after Monday's sharp losses. Japan equities, led by tech and a weaker yen, rebounded (+8%). Later US June trade data, German June factory orders and euro area June retail sales print.

Date

GMT/Local

Impact

Country

Event

06/08/2024

0545/0745

**

CH

Unemployment

06/08/2024

0600/0800

**

DE

Manufacturing Orders

06/08/2024

0630/0830

**

CH

Retail Sales

06/08/2024

0730/0930

**

EU

S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI

06/08/2024

0830/0930

**

UK

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI

06/08/2024

0900/1100

**

EU

Retail Sales

06/08/2024

0900/1000

**

UK

Gilt Outright Auction Result

06/08/2024

1100/1200

UK

APF Quarterly Report

06/08/2024

1230/0830

**

US

Trade Balance

06/08/2024

1230/0830

**

CA

International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)

06/08/2024

1255/0855

**

US

Redbook Retail Sales Index

06/08/2024

1530/1130

*

US

US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill

06/08/2024

1530/1130

**

US

US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill

06/08/2024

1700/1300

***

US

US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result

07/08/2024

2245/1045

***

NZ

Quarterly Labor market data

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