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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CREDIT PRE-MARKET
- 2y/10y bunds closed +4bp/+1bp after broadly tightening through to the US open against a quiet data calendar before widening in line with USTs as rate cut expectations continued to unwind the post-payrolls slide. OIS markets are pricing 100%, 75% and 111% of a 25bp cut at each of the three remaining meetings this year.
- Main/XO ended -0.5bp/-2bp at 64.8bp/340bp while €IG/€HY was -4.5bp/-11bp to leave the WoW move at +13.3bp/+41bp. The 1-3yr vs. +10yr IG curve steepened by 1.4bp with all sectors tighter as Cyclicals outperformed at -6bp and Cap Goods and Utilities underperformed at ~3bp tighter. Cyclicals remain the worst MoM and 3m performer, underperforming €IG by 3.8bp and 4.4bp.
- $IG was in line with €IG, bringing the YTD to +7.3bp with the 1-3yr vs. +10yr IG curve 1/7bp flatter (and just 8.3bp steeper YTD vs. 17.4bp for €IG. In contrast to €IG, Cons Cyclicals were the only sector wider at +1bp while Basic Ind, Cap Goods, Comms and Utils all tightened by over 4bp.
- SXXP ended +0.3% with Tech +1.7% and Autos -0.9% while SPX was +1%. Notable €IG movers included Sumitomo Oric +19%, Honda +15%, Toyota +13%, Mitsubishi HC +12%, Japan Tobacco +9%, Aliaxis -6%, Bayer -5%, Magna -5%, Albemarle -5%.
- Dovish remarks from the Deputy BoJ Governor, that the central bank won't raise rate if markets are unstable, has weighed heavily on the yen and driven a broader recovery in equity risk appetite and UST futures opened the session slightly higher today before turning lower on these Japan headlines. SX5E futures are +1.1% with SPX futures +0.7%.
- Later the Fed’s Collins and ECB’s McCaul appear. US June consumer credit, German June IP & trade and Canadian July PMI are released as well as BoC’s summary of deliberations.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 07/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Trade Balance |
| 07/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 07/08/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 07/08/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 07/08/2024 | - | *** |  | CN | Trade |
| 07/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | * |  | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 07/08/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 07/08/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 07/08/2024 | 1730/1330 | | CA | BOC Minutes (Summary of Deliberations) | |
| 07/08/2024 | 1900/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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