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EUR/PLN Falters Despite Polish Retail Sales Miss But Zloty Lags CE3 Peers


EUR/PLN has eased off despite a weak outturn for Polish retail sales, with CE3 currencies outperforming in the EMEA space, even as the Zloty lags both the Forint and the Koruna. The rate last operates -92 pips at PLN4.6960.

  • From a technical perspective, the key near-term support is provided by PLN4.6620, which limited losses on Mar 1. On the flip side, a recoil above PLN4.7304, the 50.0% retracement of the Feb 14 - Mar 1 bear leg, would bode well for the bullish case.
  • POLGBs are weaker in early trade, taking their cue from core FI space. Yields sit 3.6-7.7bp higher across the curve, with benchmark 10-year yield attempting a return above the 6% figure.
  • Although Poland's Febraury construction output surpassed expectations (+6.6% Y/Y versus +1.3% expected), retail sales were notably worse than forecast, providing further evidence of the weak position of local consumers. Real retail sales contracted 5.0% Y/Y last month, while consensus called for a 1.5% decline.

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