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EUR/USD Ekes Out a Fresh Cycle High in Late Asia

FOREX
  • The single currency fares better early Friday, creeping higher against most others in G10 - although market moves are more muted relative to Thursday trade. EUR/USD has printed a fresh weekly high at 1.1076 in late Asia hours, which remains the high watermark headed through to the NY crossover.
  • GBP/USD traded well before meeting selling pressure across early Europe. Moves were order flow driven rather than headline driven, with futures markets showing evidence of sizeable selling helping push prices back to handle support of 1.2500.
  • AUD is at the bottom of the G10 pile, partially reversing the solid rally posted during the Thursday session. 0.6755 Fib retracement provides first weak support ahead of the 50-, 200-dmas of 0.6749 and 0.6744 respectively. Note that the DMAs are on the cusp of printing a death cross (50-dma < 200-dma) for the first time since May 2022 - a bearish technical signal.
  • Data highlights Friday include import/export price indices for March, as well as the monthly retail sales report. Consensus looks for retail sales to have dropped 0.4% - a similar pace to February - with the ex-auto and gas component seen particularly weak.
  • Prelim University of Michigan Sentiment rounds off the week, which is expected to show further stickiness in inflation expectations last month. Fed's Goolsbee and Waller are the highlights of the speaker slate.
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