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EUR/USD Flirting With 1.10 as Single Currency Suffers

FOREX
  • Regional currencies in close proximity to Ukraine remain weak on further reports of clashes and conflict in south-eastern Europe. Markets were particularly unsettled by reports of shelling and explosions at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, with emergency services having to attend fires at one of the continent's largest nuclear centres. This puts the likes of SEK, HUF, CZK and PLN on the backfoot, forcing the hand of both the Polish and Czech central banks, who've had to coordinate currency intervention already on Friday.
  • EUR is just behind SEK as the worst performer in G10, putting EUR/USD toward the 1.10 handle - a level last broken in 2020 during the worst of the COVID crisis. Haven currencies remain far more solid, with CHF, JPY faring better.
  • EUR/AUD, meanwhile, has broken considerably lower, hitting new multi-year lows and extending through key horizontal support. This marks the 11th consecutive day of declines for the cross, with support seen scant until 1.4794. Monetary policy expectations continue to play out, with the cross correlating well with market pricing for ECB vs. RBA rate hikes across 2022.
  • Focus turns to the February payrolls report, with markets expecting 423k jobs added over the month, pressing the unemployment rate lower by 0.1ppts to 3.9%. See MNI's preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/14079/US...
  • Outside of the US data, focus rests on the extraordinary NATO meeting with defence ministers Friday. NATO's Stoltenberg holds a post-meeting press conference at 1130GMT/0630ET.
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