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Finds Support At The 20-Day EMA


Late Corporate Credit Update


Late Eurodollar/SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup


Bear Flag


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EURO-DOLLAR: EUR/USD has edged lower in early dealing, trading 15 pips worse off
at $1.1595, but now sits some 20 or so pips off of worst levels (pressure on
EUR/JPY pushed the cross to lows). Questions still surround the longevity of the
German gov't, although reports suggest that interior minister (and leader of
Merkel's coalition partner) Horst Seehofer has given the C'llr two more weeks to
come up with a solution for matters surrounding migration.
- Initial support is seen at $1.1541 (Low June 15), while resistance is seen at
$1.1627 (High June 15).
- MNI analysis shows that new EUR/USD shorts are in for a rough ride. The Fed
rate trajectory is almost fully baked-in, making USD less sensitive to hawkish
turns. Options markets and positioning point to limited EUR/USD downside.
Nonetheless, positioning & options markets were already structurally short EUR
pre-ECB, with the latter unwilling to gear for further downside, making any
further move lower in spot tough going.
- Focus on Monday will fall on a speech from ECB Pres. Draghi as he opens the
ECB's Sintra conference.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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