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EURO-DOLLAR: EUR/USD last sits at $1.1191, almost unch. on the day, after
cratering 114 pips yesterday, in the wake of the ECB MonPol decision and the
subsequent press conference with ECB Pres Draghi. The ECB altered its forward
guidance and said that key interest rates will remain unchanged "at least
through the end of 2019," as well as announcing a fresh round of TLTROs. The
Bank also trimmed its 2019 GDP forecast to +1.1% from 1.6% and slashed inflation
estimates across all time horizons. Worth mentioning BBG sources suggested that
some of the ECB officials think that the new 2019 GDP forecasts are still too
optimistic. EUR/USD hit levels not seen since June 2017 as a result.
- Worth mentioning final EZ Q4 GDP was revised to +1.1% Y/Y from +1.2%
yesterday, but no impact on price action was noted.
- Bears look for a breach of yesterday's YTD low of $1.1177 before targeting the
lower Bollinger band (3%) at $1.1154, while bulls need a break above the lower
1.0% 10-DMA envelope at $1.1206 before challenging the Nov 12 low of $1.1216.
- EZ focus today turns to French & Italian industrial output, as well as German
factory orders and remarks from ECB's Nowotny.