MNI BRIEF: BCB Focus Survey Sees Higher Selic Expectations
MNI (BRASILIA) - Median forecasts for the Selic rate in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus Market Survey rose to 11.25% at the end of this year and to 10.25% for 2025, following a hawkish tone from Copom members in recent speeches and stronger- than-expected second quarter GDP growth of 1.4%.
Last week, forecasts were 10.50% for 2024 and 10.00% for 2025.
In July, the Central Bank of Brazil unanimously decided to hold the Selic rate at 10.5% for a second consecutive meeting, offering no forward guidance for upcoming sessions. However, minutes from the meeting indicated that the Copom would “not hesitate” to hike rates if necessary. (See MNI EM POLICY: BCB Divided Over Risks To Inflation)
Analysts raised forecasts for 2024 inflation to 4.30%, up from 4.26% last week, while maintaining a projection of 3.92% for 2025.