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EUR/USD Narrows Gap With Bull Trigger, Volumes Holding Up

EUR
  • EUR/USD matches yesterday's high, led by the slippage in Treasury yields (mentioned above). Should momentum pick up on any break of the 1.1013 level, the next upside level crosses at 1.1017 - the Nov 29 high and bull trigger. Clearance here puts the pair at highest level since mid-August.
  • The brings the more notable expiries for today's cut into play, with E699mln rolling off at the $1.1020 strike - which could come into focus should today's PCE/durable goods/new home sales data fail to move prices meaningfully.
  • Volumes are faring relatively well, with EUR futures volumes only modestly below average for this time of day - although perhaps unsurprising given the early closes across European/select US markets today.
  • Recall the solid equity rally this month may prompt month-end FX rebalancing flows to be USD negative - an effect that could be brought forward given the staggered nature of market opening/closings across the next week or so.

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