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EUR/USD Retains Primary Downtrend

FOREX
  • EUR/USD printed a lower low for the 8th time in the past nine session, putting the pair at new multi-decade lows of 1.0151. This retains the primary downtrend inside the bear channel drawn off the February 10 high. Reports from Bloomberg cited sources in saying that the ECB's anti-fragmentation tool may not be ready and prepared for the July 21st governing council meeting, tilting the currency lower still. The single currency following Italian bond futures lower, with the 10y yield rising by 15bps Thursday.
  • Political tumult continued in the UK, with the PM Johnson formally announcing his resignation and his intention to carry on as a caretaker PMI until a new leader is elected by the Conservative Party. GBP took the news in its stride, showcasing how well priced the currency was for political uncertainty. GBP traded better against most others into the London close, putting EUR/GBP on track to test key 50-day EMA support at 0.8536. Weakness through here opens the Jul 6 low at below.
  • Lastly, AUD and NZD were among the session's best performers, rallying against most others in G10 as the risk-off backdrop faded. Equity futures globally improved, helping high beta and commodity currencies outperform.
  • Focus Friday turns to the June nonfarm payrolls report, with markets on watch for any slowdown in hiring and the resulting implications for the Fed's policy path. See the full MNI preview here: https://marketnews.com/markets/pdfs/mni-us-payrolls-preview-growth-concerns-thrown-into-the-mix ).
  • Outside of payrolls, the Canadian jobs report is also due, while ECB's Lagarde, Visco, Muller and Villeroy are due to speak as well as Fed's Williams.
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