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MNI US Payrolls Preview: Growth Concerns Thrown Into The Mix

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Nonfarm payrolls are seen rising 268k in June as the pace eases further from the 390k in May but remains well above average growth of 164k through 2019, with wage growth and the u/e rate unchanged from May.
  • Rising growth concerns could see focus on the composition of payrolls growth, adding to the familiar focus on labour market tightness.
  • Potentially small downside risk to July pricing (currently 71bp) but it would likely take a very weak report to materially change those expectations.
  • Skittish markets in the run up to the release see two-sided risk for meetings further out where the Fed is seen to likely be back at neutral and increasingly data dependent (currently 180bps of hikes year-end). The fact labour indicators tend to be lagging indicators could however at the margin add some downside risk from those coming into this report with a pessimistic view on the US economy.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USNFPJul2022Preview.pdf

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