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EUR/USD Soggy Into Europe but Decent Demand Noted 1.2015/00

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Corrective pullback away from last Thursday's high of $1.2243 extended in Monday trade to $1.2028 before closing the day around $1.2050.
  • Asia marked a high at $1.2051 before USD strength saw rate break down to $1.2015 where Asian traders report meeting decent demand.
  • Shallow recovery to $1.2028, though rate was holding shy of another challenge on $1.2015 ahead of Europe.
  • Support remains at $1.2015. Asian traders note that only small option expiry interest at $1.2000 for today's NY cut but add that E1.4bln of EUR puts roll off at Wednesday's cut and may add to defence of this level. A break to open a deeper move toward $1.1985/80 ahead of the Feb05 YTD low of $1.1952.
  • Resistance $1.2028, $1.2050, $1.2065/70, $1.2090/1.2100.
  • Germany Retail Sales 0700GMT, Germany Unemployment 0855GMT, EZ Flash CPI 1000GMT. ECB Panetta speaks at 1340GMT.
  • Light US data calendar with main focus on Fed speak (ahead of the black out period). Fed Barkin Monday noted rise in yields a reflection of improved economic outlook with more focus seen on employment. For today, Fed Brainard(dove) 1800GMT, Daly(dove) 1900GMT. Focus this week on Fed Powell pre black out appearance Thursday.
  • UST yields, equity performance, Fed speak remain key directional drivers.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD maintains a weaker tone and has today traded below support at $1.2023, Feb 17 low. Friday's price pattern in candle terms is a bearish engulfing and this highlighted the possibility of a deeper short-term pullback (it also followed a bearish shooting star candle on Thursday). The break of $1.2023, reinforces the bearish patterns and signals scope for weakness towards $1.1952, Feb 5 low. $1.2101 is initial resistance.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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