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EUR/USD Testing Base of Bull Channel as ECB Momentum Leaning Toward a Pause

EUR
  • EUR facing fresh pressure through the European open, putting EUR/USD further below the 200-dma of 1.0804 (last broken below in Jun'21) and now testing the base of the bull channel drawn off the March lows at 1.0769. A break and close below this mark would be a resolutely bearish development, opening June 12th lows at 1.0733 as well as the March 15 lows of 1.0635 further out.
  • Moves follow further caution around the Sept ECB rate decision, with Reuters reporting that momentum for a rate pause is building, according to 8 separate sources. Approximately 8.5bps of tightening remains priced, shedding around 1bps on the story.
  • Weakness in spot put prices below the larger strikes set to roll-off at today's cut: $3.1bln set to roll-off between 1.0800-25 today.

EUR/USD testing base of the bull channel

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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