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EUR Weakness Pressures Broader EM FX

CROSS ASSET
  • Poorer-than-expected Eurozone, French and German PMIs have pressured EUR in Friday trade. EUR/USD is through the 50-dma support and narrowing in on the 100-dma at 1.0809 while the USD Index sits at its highest since July 15. JPY is the strongest performer in G10 after core CPI was stronger than expected for May, seeing EUR/JPY reverse a notable 170 pips from yesterday’s highs. US Tsys have firmed across the curve, further indication of the risk-off market tone.
  • G10 rates are on the backfoot following the poor PMIs, with the ECB implied curve retreating close to 10bps, dragging the peak rate back below 4% in deposit rate terms. This has bled into broader CB pricing and led to a more sharply inverted US sovereign curve.
  • Single currency weakness has weighed heavily on EUR-proxies in EM, with HUF, PLN and CZK the weakest currencies in the space. There is little in the way of data releases today, though worth noting S&P and Fitch are scheduled to update their assessments on Poland and Hungary, respectively, after hours.
  • Looking ahead to the US session, we have Fed speak from Bullard, Bostic and Mester as well as PMI data.
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