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EURGBP Slides To Lowest Level Since December

FOREX
  • The greenback traded with a surer footing on Tuesday as UK markets returned from a holiday and global participants eagerly await the April US CPI figures.
  • The USD index has risen around a quarter of a percent, extending Monday’s modest bounce amid weakness for major equity indices and potential profit taking dynamics ahead of the key US data. Lower equity benchmarks, although the pullback has been relatively contained so far, have weighed on the likes of AUD, NZD, placing them toward the bottom-end of the pile amid relatively thin trade.
  • EURUSD weakness also extended on the move through the Friday low at 1.0967 with 1.0942 support holding the pair for the time being. Ahead of tomorrow, the more meaningful downside level of 1.0874 will be in focus.
  • Single currency weakness was also notable against sterling, with EURGBP sliding to the lowest level since mid-December 2022. The cross has cleared key support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low and the clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 3 and initially opens 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement.
    • Furthermore, RBC recommended going short cable in this week’s trade of the week, highlighting that although the BoE is widely expected to hike by 25bps and stay hawkish on Thursday, the hurdle is high to out-hawk the forward curve.
  • The Norwegian Krone was one of the poorest performers in G10 on Monday, prompting USD/NOK to recover back above the 50-dma and partially reverse four consecutive sessions of losses. These moves come ahead of Wednesday’s April CPI release, with markets expecting the CPI-ATE Y/Y measure to slow to 6.1% from 6.2% prior.
  • Clear focus on Wednesday will be the US inflation report, where Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/m in April but with sizeable risk skewed to the upside.

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