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EURGBP Through Monday Lows, Extending Technical Breakout

FOREX
  • We are seeing further weakness for EURGBP as we approach the NY crossover, breaking below Monday’s lows of 0.8440 and extending the most recent breakout below 0.8500. French political concerns continue to weigh on the single currency, whereas sterling has largely shrugged off this morning’s weaker labour market report, supported by UK wage growth remaining at elevated levels.
  • Following EURGBP’s close below 0.8500 last Friday, we noted the subsequent breach of the bear trigger at 0.8484 as confirming a resumption of the downtrend.
  • Price action is narrowing the gap to the initial target of 0.8408. The Aug 17 2022 low at 0.8388 and 0.8340 are both targets to be aware of below here. Resistance moves down to 0.8511, the 20-day EMA.
  • Monthly UK GDP data crosses tomorrow where the Bloomberg median is +0.0% M/M for April with estimates ranging from - 0.3% to +0.2%, following March's higher than expected print of +0.4% M/M. As we continue through the purdah period there will be no public BOE appearances until after the election (4th July).
  • For the rest of the week, US data and central bank decisions from the Fed and BOJ will remain in focus, potentially allowing EURGBP to be a cleaner expression of sentiment as this event risk is navigated.
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