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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
HUNGARY
- Last week, the NBH 'disappointed' the market by keeping the slower pace of its tightening cycle, raising the benchmark rate by 15bps to 1.80%.
- Selling pressure on HUF has remained elevated, with the forint recently trading at multi-month lows against major crosses (i.e. EUR, USD, GBP).
- The forint has been one of weakest FX performers among the EM world in recent weeks, down 6.3% against the USD and 4.7% against the EUR, respectively, since the beginning of September.
- EURHUF is now trading above the 366 level and gradually approaching its key resistance at 370 (see chart)
- A break above that level could lead to more aggressive hikes in the coming meetings as weakening HUF keeps supporting inflation expectations.
- We previously saw that the significant 20% increase in minimum wage combined with a potential hike in public sector wages next year could lead to a slower convergence of inflation down to the 3-percent NBH target within the next 12 months.
- Hence, a weaker currency could lead to a prolonged period of elevated inflation, which NBH Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy recently called a 'public enemy'.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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