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EURHUF Continues to Reverse Mid-April Upleg, Gap to Support at 388.34 Narrows

HUF
  • EURHUF is trading lower again Thursday morning, down 0.3% at typing and approaching 389. The cross has traded lower in 7 out of the previous 9 sessions, tracking around 1.44% lower overall over the past month (only the South African rand has outperformed the forint out of the major EMEA currencies over that time frame).
  • A more hawkish NBH has been supporting the currency, though a leading regional economist told MNI yesterday that while Hungary and its CE3 peers will continue to see a gradual recovery in the coming quarters, they remain fragile due to a combination of sluggish German growth, fiscal challenges, rising geopolitical risk and inflation uncertainty.
  • From a technical perspective, attention is still on 388.34, the Apr 5 low and a level we have substantially narrowed the gap to over the past week. A break here would reinstate a bearish theme following the mid-April upleg, and could expose the 200-DMA at 386.20.
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