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EURHUF Extends Bounce Off Thursday’s Lows, Initial Resistance Remains Intact

HUF
EURHUF has firmed 0.22% this morning, extending the bounce off yesterday’s lows to around 0.6%. Given this week’s relatively narrow ranges, the short-term outlook remains bullish with upside focus falling on 390.49, the Jan 30 high. Key support at 384.90 – the 50-day EMA – still lies some way off.
  • Performance of the forint today is in-line with that of its regional peers, however, with 0.25% and 0.20% gains recorded for EURPLN and EURCZK, respectively. On a YTD basis, the forint’s spot returns against the euro stand at -1.40% (compared to -2.82% for the Czech koruna and +0.20% for the Polish zloty).
  • The NBH rate decision is the key risk event next week. Deputy Governor Virag said yesterday that that a 100bp cut was on the table in January, but negative market and credit agency reception to the proposed changes to the reference rate, as well as the FT report which alleged that EU members would shut off funding to Hungary if it did not withdraw its veto on sending aid to Ukraine all contributed to the negative sentiment in Hungary. Given these concerns have subsided, a 100bp cut is the likely outcome next week, though concerns over HUF volatility poses downside risks.
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