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EURHUF Extends Move Higher Amid ECB Rate Repricing

HUNGARY
EURHUF (+0.85%) is trading above the 386.00 handle and at its highest since mid-February at the time of typing as the SVB-led flight to safety and consequent ECB rate repricing weighs in on the euro-proxy forint and its CEE peers. EURHUF looks to extend last week’s 1% move higher, piercing the 50-day EMA at 387.27 as HUF sits comfortably as the poorest performing CEEMEA currency this morning
  • The contagion concerns surrounding Silicon Valley Bank remain a key sentiment driver, helping spark selling across HUF, PLN, ZAR and other high yielders. Similarly, the Budapest Stock Index trades 1.45% in the red, though its losses lag its regional peers. The downside risks to the telegraphed 50bp ECB hike this Thursday, however, have seen local bonds trade firmer, with 10Y yields down ~19bps.
  • Despite the recent price action, technical EURHUF trend conditions are unchanged and remain bearish, with the latest recovery appearing to be a correction. The focus is on 370.82, the 1.382 projection of the Oct 13 - Nov 10 - Dec 12 price swing. The 50-day EMA, which intersects today at 387.27, has been pierced. A continuation of bullish price action will open resistance at 396.09, the Feb 07 high.
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