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EURHUF Extends Weakness Below 20- and 50- Day EMAs

HUNGARY
EURHUF (-0.93%) has traded lower for a fourth consecutive day as the post-Fed rally in the euro provides support to CEEMEA currencies. The extension in weakness of EURHUF has resulted in a move below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, with scope seen for a continuation towards 381.12, the Mar 13 low. A clear break of this level would expose key support at 372.38, the Mar 1 low.
  • HUF, in particular, is outperforming its peers following yesterday’s move by the government which limits local institutional investors and large retail depositors' ability to take advantage of the central bank’s credit facilities which yield 18%. ING analysts note that the move may strengthen the forint as it reduces local yields, and therefore the cost of foreign-currency swaps, boosting profits on carry trades.
  • Next week’s central bank meeting will be accompanied by an updated inflation forecast, and comes amid increasing friction between central bank and government officials, who have both blamed each other for the nation’s recession.
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