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HUF: EURHUF Hits 2-Month Low, Most Oversold Since May 2024

HUF
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsHungary

The forint remains an outperformer across the EM space, extending gains in recent trade to reach a new 2-month high against the euro. Losses for EURHUF accelerated through the 407.00 handle, coinciding with this week’s earlier lows, while USDHUF is now 0.6% lower having re-tested initial resistance at the 50-day EMA at the start of Thursday trade.

  • HUF outperformance on an intraday basis can largely be explained by the stronger-than-expected GDP figures for Q4 released this morning, data which confirmed that the economy exited a technical recession. Broader strength for the forint this year has resulted in a 2.5% pullback for EURHUF from the January highs, placing the 14-day RSI at its lowest since May 2024 and close to the ‘oversold’ 30-threshold.
  • Despite more favourable global conditions and a more benign path for the HUF through 2025 so far, shorter-dated FRA contracts continue to indicate no change in policy in the next 3 months (as evidenced by 3x6 contracts) though longer-dated contracts reflect the higher levels of uncertainty over the rate path from when Mihaly Varga takes the helm of the central bank in March. Among sell-side, views are mixed over the timing of the next rate cut (see more here)
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The forint remains an outperformer across the EM space, extending gains in recent trade to reach a new 2-month high against the euro. Losses for EURHUF accelerated through the 407.00 handle, coinciding with this week’s earlier lows, while USDHUF is now 0.6% lower having re-tested initial resistance at the 50-day EMA at the start of Thursday trade.

  • HUF outperformance on an intraday basis can largely be explained by the stronger-than-expected GDP figures for Q4 released this morning, data which confirmed that the economy exited a technical recession. Broader strength for the forint this year has resulted in a 2.5% pullback for EURHUF from the January highs, placing the 14-day RSI at its lowest since May 2024 and close to the ‘oversold’ 30-threshold.
  • Despite more favourable global conditions and a more benign path for the HUF through 2025 so far, shorter-dated FRA contracts continue to indicate no change in policy in the next 3 months (as evidenced by 3x6 contracts) though longer-dated contracts reflect the higher levels of uncertainty over the rate path from when Mihaly Varga takes the helm of the central bank in March. Among sell-side, views are mixed over the timing of the next rate cut (see more here)